scoring average

scoring average = total points / (fga + fta/2.025)

when fga stands for field goal attempts and fta stands for free throw attempts.

This statistic is based on the assumption that fta/2.025 will be equal to the total number of trips to the free throw line that do not follow a made shot, for a given player, because each trip to the free throw line that do not follow a made shot, is one scoring attempt, and because what we want to know is how many points each player scores per scoring attempt. If a player scores more points per scoring attempt than the team average that will tell us that that player should probably try to score more, and if a player scores fewer points per scoring attempt than the team average that will tell us that that player should probably try to score less, (realizing that there will be many exceptions to this rule created by the fact that many players can get good scoring opportunities to a given point and after that point experience a sudden drop-off in the quality of the scoring opportunities they will be able to get. Still this situation should be the exception to the rule. Most players who have a high scoring average to a certain point, will be able to continue to score at a high level for a good distance beyond that point, in terms of their number of scoring attempts. At some point another team will probably start devoting more defenders to guarding them, but reaching this point will usually require that player continuing to score at a high average with many more attempts.)

We currently try to determine which players should try to score more often, by looking at field goal percentage, but we have long realized that we would rather have certain players try to score more in spite of relatively low field goal percentages because those players get fouled often or make a lot of three point shots, but we have not known how much weight we should give these factors. Scoring average solves these problems for us, by measuring total points per scoring attempt.

Of course for some players the number of trips to the free throw line that do not follow a made shot, will be greater than this number given by fta/2.025 and for some players it will be smaller than this number, so ideally fta/2.025 should be replaced by a player’s total number of trips to the free throw line that do not follow a made shot. I have not written the formula for scoring average like this because each player’s number of trips to the free throw line is not a widely available number, (I know it has not been available to me over the years I have been calculating scoring average).

Attempts to create a single statistic that measures a player’s productivity are futile because each observer will weight the importance of different statistics differently, and because wise observers will weight the importance of different statistics differently for different players. What we want to know is how good a job any particular player does in a role that we want Him to play, (whether that role be scoring, helping teammates score, defending, helping teammates defend, or rebounding. It is a great advantage, though, to be able to measure a player’s effectiveness in each of these areas. The statistic of scaring average is one tool that will help us do this.